The 11-1 Michigan Wolverines make their first B1G title game appearance, while the 10-2 Iowa Hawkeyes make their second appearance
After Michigan’s dominant win over Ohio State, the Wolverines locked up the East Division and are in prime position for a playoff birth. The Hawkeyes won the West after defeating Nebraska, then watched as Wisconsin’s seven game win streak was snapped by Minnesota.
Both programs face-off in an attempt to win their first Big Ten championship since 2004. That year, both schools were recognized as co-champions as no championship game had been created yet since the conference sat at 11 schools. Now, either school has a chance to end that drought and not share it with the other.
Here are some of the key numbers heading into this game. All numbers pulled from the NCAA Stats website.
Total Offense
Michigan: 19th, averaging 451.2 YPG.
Iowa: 123rd, averaging 299.1 YPG
Total Defense
Iowa: 13th, allowing an average of 315.7 YPG.
Michigan: 14th, allowing an average of 319.2 YPG.
Scoring Offense
Michigan: 13th, averaging 37.3 PPG.
Iowa: 87th, averaging 25.7 PPG.
Scoring Defense
Michigan: 8th, allowing an average of 17.17 PPG.
Iowa: 9th, allowing an average of 17.25 PPG.
Passing Offense
Michigan: 68th, averaging 226.2 YPG.
Iowa: 110th, averaging 177.9 YPG.
Passing Defense
Michigan: 23rd, allowing an average of 196.3 YPG.
Iowa: 38th, allowing an average of 209.9 YPG.
Rushing Offense
Michigan: 9th, averaging 224.9 YPG.
Iowa: 106th, averaging 121.2 YPG.
Rushing Defense
Iowa: 14th, allowing an average of 105.8 YPG.
Michigan: 22nd, allowing an average of 122.9 YPG.
General Thoughts
According to Caesars, Michigan is an 11 point favorite heading into this game. For some, that number may seem low. However that number probably bakes in a great deal of respect toward Iowa’s defense.
At this point, it shouldn’t be breaking news that Iowa has achieved it’s success this season mainly due to their defense. As seen above, the numbers show the Hawkeyes posses one of the more dominant units in the country. Michigan though isn’t far off from those same metrics.
It wasn’t until after the Ohio State game that the Wolverine defense really began to receive the national recognition it deserved. You found talk about it in certain spots locally, but the offense was operating at such a clip that it overshadowed how dominant Michigan was on the defensive side as well. This, and the general assumption that Ohio State would move/score on this team, probably fed into the lack of talk about this defense.
Both of the defenses should keep the game close in terms of score, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to watch this game and feel like Michigan has control throughout most of the contest. They have a sizable advantage on offense, and a few scores could be enough of a gulf to prevent Iowa from pulling the upset.
Michigan wins if…
They continue their recent play. QB Cade McNamara has performed very well of late, bringing life to a Michigan passing attack that can combine with the Wolverine’s strong running game. Michigan should rely on their backs Corum and Haskins, while taking select shots with McNamara through the air. If Michigan can get enough push at the line on offense, they can wear down Iowa and ask their own elite defense to bring the championship home.
Iowa wins if…
They play loose and take shots offensively that they are not used to taking. The Hawkeyes cannot enter this game expecting to play conservative on offense and hope to limit Michigan with their defense all game. Kirk Ferentz and his staff need to be willing to try a few things they normally wouldn’t, such as running tempo or using more spread looks. If they can present Michigan with something they haven’t seen, they may be able to move the ball enough to score and prevent their defense from wearing down.
Prediction
Michigan: 27 – 13