Predicting how the teams in the Big Ten East Division will fare in 2021
After a season that was shortened and handled poorly by Big Ten officials in terms of even playing it, it’s nice to gear up for a more normalized year. Still, some teams are building off what momentum they generated in 2020, while others are trying to right the ship after a rocky campaign.
The 2021 season is set to kick-off later this month, so it’s time to offer up a synopsis and prediction for how teams in the Big Ten East Division will do this season. You can check out our review for the West Division here.
The Alpha Dog, Ohio State
Ohio State enters the 2021 season as reigning East Division and Big Ten champions, and will see anything other than a repeat as a bust. OSU certainly has the talent to accomplish a repeat as champions, but will have to address some major questions as well. The two most prominent concerns being breaking in a new quarterback and improving a pass defense that ranked 122nd in the country last year for yards allowed.
The Buckeyes will most likely be starting sophomore C.J. Stroud at quarterback, who should be more than capable of holding his own. On defense, OSU will be relying mostly on talented but inexperienced players to improve the secondary. The hope is a few of these young players such as redshirt freshmen Ryan Watts, Lejond Cavazos, and Cameron Martinez will grow quickly with some game experience and become solid contributors this season.
While the hope is young defensive backs may be able to improve a passing defense that finished 122nd last year, the secondary will get a boost from what should be a loaded defensive line. Edge rushers Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith, along with 5-star freshmen Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, should provide more pressure off the edge than what the Buckeyes saw last season.
Quick growth of all young players will be paramount as Ohio State opens on the road against Minnesota, before hosting Oregon in week two. These first two games could disrupt any plans the Buckeyes may have of returning to the CFP if they aren’t prepared.
Carrying Momentum
A few programs in the East will be looking to build off their performances from 2020, the most notable school being Indiana. The Hoosiers were the talk of the nation last year, upsetting Penn State to open the year and taking Ohio State to the wire when a comeback in Columbus fell short. The team would finish 2nd in the East Division, their best finish since 1967.
Some pundits and fans have openly speculated if Indiana can repeat their success from last year, especially if Covid-19 is no longer a disruption. It’ll be a question someone like head coach Tom Allen will be more than eager to answer, especially with a program that is returning much of the core that finished second in the East last year.
If Indiana does repeat its success or improve upon its performance from last season, it may come from the return of a rushing attack on offense. Establishing a more potent running game has been a priority this off-season for the Hoosiers, and a return of Deland McCullough as running backs coach will certainly help. Add a high profile transfer at running back and Indiana might just have a strong running game to match a strong passing attack.
Indiana’s schedule will be a daunting challenge though, as they open the season at Iowa before hosting Cincinnati in week three.
Culture Building & Future Success
Outside of Indiana though, programs such as Rutgers and Michigan State are also working to build off their own momentum from the 2020 season. Both of these schools didn’t post a winning record last season, but you cannot always judge a program by wins and losses when young staff are attempting to establish a new culture.
Michigan State and Rutgers broke in new coaches in 2020, as Mel Tucker and Greg Schiano took over their respective programs. For anyone following their tenure, both programs have provided an excellent blueprint for how modern college programs can flip a roster utilizing the transfer portal. Rutgers had great success before the 2020 season bringing in many players from the portal in an effort to overhaul the roster, while Michigan State has done much of the same this off-season.
Rutgers used the portal to find players such as 2020 starting QB Noah Vedral, and speedy WR/RS Aron Cruickshank. And while we haven’t seen them play yet, MSU has a significant list of transfers that could become important contributors in 2021. Players such LB Itayvion Brown and WR/TE Maliq Carr could play significant time this season, or set themselves up for significant roles in 2022 and beyond.
Though I believe both schools are a year away from competing in the loaded East Division, both schools should continue to grow their program’s identity and culture and set themselves up for future success. To illustrate that point, look at where both schools reside currently in the 247 Sports Football Team Rankings for 2022.
Fans of Rutgers and Michigan State may be sitting through one more rough year in terms of wins and losses, but 2022 could see both programs shake up the East Division race.
The Maryland Question
The Terrapins resemble both Rutgers and Michigan State to a degree. Head coach Mike Locksley has had a bit more time to build his program, but he has built the program mostly through recruiting, and not so much through the transfer portal. That said, his biggest acquisition and possible reason for 2021 success may be due to a transfer.
Last off-season, Taulia Tagovailoa transferred into the program from Alabama and won the starting job for Maryland. Though he only started four games, the small sample size showed flashes of an offense that could pop in the passing game this year. Locksley inherited star receiver Dontay Demus Jr., but was able to keep 5-star receiver Rakim Jarrett home as part of the 2020 recruiting class.
Now with a full off-season to prepare for 2021, Maryland returns almost the entire receiving core from last year while adding transfer Marcus Fleming from Nebraska. If the Terrapins can find a suitable replacement for Jake Funk at half-back, Maryland may be a team putting up quite a few points this season.
Scoring lots of points may be very important this season, as plenty of questions exist about the defense. The Terrapins made a change at defensive coordinator after 2020, bringing back to the program Brian Stewart. We will have to see if Stewart’s scheme improves a defense that has not been good the past two seasons, but may rely on plenty of young players in 2021.
Maryland was able to achieve a huge recruiting win when they secured the commitment of 5-star linebacker Terrence Lewis. Early this spring Lewis was diagnosed with a torn ACL, but thoughts are he could be back early in the season. Along with Lewis though, Maryland brought into the program 4-star players Demeioun Robinson, Branden Jennings, Taizse Johnson, and Tommy Akingbesote.
Perhaps Stewart can change the defense for the better with these players, but smart money would be on the defense taking a more significant leap forward next year.
A Bounce Back, Or Will The Struggles Continue
Two of the more prestigious programs in the Big Ten had 2020 seasons they wish to forget. Penn State and Michigan both set out with high expectations, but finished far off from their goals ending with a 4-5 and 2-4 record respectively. With Covid interruptions no longer an excuse, 2021 will show us if last year’s was a one off event, or a new norm.
For Penn State, most opinions out there agree that last year was a fluke. Many, my self included, feel James Franklin will be able to bring the program back to its standard of double-digit wins and closest competitor to OSU in the East. PSU did make a change at offensive coordinator, replacing Kirk Ciarrocca with Mike Yurcich, a hire I believe was an upgrade.
PSU has recruited well during Franklin’s tenure at the school, and should ease losses on the roster as the talent from those classes begin to fight for playing time. The Nittany Lions are returning three key seniors in receiver Jahan Dotson, quarterback Sean Clifford, and safety Jaquan Brisker. Clifford may benefit the most from Yurcich’s hiring, as PSU attempts to move away from the run heavy offense fans saw late last year.
Should PSU improve even marginally in its pass rush, and develop a more balanced offensive attack, there should be no question Penn State will compete for the East crown. Things do not start off easy though, as week one sees the Lions head to Wisconsin in what will be a major test for this year’s team.
Michigan on the other hand is a program that enters 2021 as a mystery. The administration brought back Jim Harbaugh as head coach on a four year extension, while flipping a large portion of his staff to improve on field results. Some fans would argue Harbaugh needs to go for real improvement to happen, while others defend the overall work Harbaugh has done
One thing is certain though, Michigan needs to put 2020 behind them and the program has to show it can compete for a top three finish in the East. As much as Michigan fans may not like it, finishing behind Penn State and Ohio State could be explained away. Finishing behind Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, or Rutgers however cannot.
The Wolverines on paper have too much talent to be a mid-level or cellar dwelling team in this division. Michigan sees the return of dynamic players such as RB Hassan Haskins, WR Cornelius Johnson, LB Josh Ross, and last but not least, DE/OLB Aidan Hutchinson. It was announced recently that Cade McNamara has won the starting quarterback job meaning that the junior can try to build off his momentum from late last season.
Freshmen RB Donovan Edwards, LB Junior Colson, and WR Cristian Dixon may be candidates who push older players for playing time this fall. It’s possible that 5-star quarterback and top recruit of the 2021 class, J.J. McCarthy could also push for time in mop up duty or if the season doesn’t go the way Michigan had hoped.
Again, Michigan has the talent to compete on paper, however developing and utilizing that talent has been a recent issue. We won’t know if an overhaul of the staff will fix either of these issues until we kick-off in the fall. If the new staff can address these problems, Michigan may be a dark contender for the East. If they cannot, Harbaugh may not see 2022 as head coach.
Record Predictions
#1 Ohio State: 12 – 0
#2 Penn State: 10 – 2
#3 Indiana: 9 – 3
#4 Michigan: 7 – 5
#5 Maryland: 7 – 5
#6 Michigan State: 4 – 8
#7 Rutgers: 4-8