Previewing and predicting how the teams in the Big Ten West Division will fare in 2021
On August 28th, Nebraska and Illinois will officially kick-off the start of Big Ten football in 2021. Before they start the season though, we are offering our prediction on how the race for the West Division crown will play out.
You can check out our thoughts on the East Division here.
Plenty Of Questions For Northwestern
Teams in the West Division may have a hard time separating themselves this season.
Last year Northwestern shocked many by putting together a very solid season, culminating in a Big Ten Championship game appearance against Ohio State. Preseason predictions mostly had them struggling to compete for a winning record. However, the defense was outstanding and was one of the nation’s best, while transfer quarterback Peyton Ramsey led an offense that did just enough to win games.
Now the Wildcats are searching for a new leader at quarterback and will turn to former 5-star recruit Hunter Johnson. Johnson transferred into the program in 2018 but has struggled to see the field. Defensively Northwestern will have many new faces on the field as only five starters return for 2021. On top of that, they will be led by new defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil after Mike Hankwitz retired.
Northwestern on paper has done a reasonable job building depth on the roster, but this year probably won’t be a repeat of 2020. Especially when your top running back is lost for the season before it even kicks off.
Hawkeye Youth Will Be Key
The Iowa Hawkeyes seem to always have a solid team under Kirk Ferentz. 2021 shouldn’t be any different, though if the Hawkeyes are to compete for the West Division title they will need contributions from young guys right away.
Many Hawkeye fans are looking for quarterback Spencer Petras to improve his game this year. If that happens, it’ll be because the young receivers exceeded expectations and were immediate contributors to the offense. The Hawkeyes lost leading wideouts Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Brandon Smith to graduation, and the most experienced receiver left would be Nico Ragaini. Petras will have tight end Sam LaPorta as an option, but inexperienced guys will have to emerge quickly.
It could be a rough start to the year in terms of getting that passing game going as Iowa opens up against No. 17 Indiana, before playing No. 7 Iowa State in week two. It wouldn’t be a shock to us if Iowa enters week three in a 0-2 hole.
Defensively the Hawkeyes look to have a solid unit that will keep them close in most games. They’ll need to find replacements for defensive linemen Daviyon Nixon and Chauncey Golston, but should have a solid group of guys up front to use to disrupt opposing offenses.
Keep an eye out for linebacker Jack Campbell. If healthy, many around the program think he could be a true difference maker for the defense.
Patience Running Out In Nebraska
Everyone knows this a crucial year for Scott Frost at Nebraska. He didn’t do himself any favors however by engaging in activities that put the program under NCAA investigation before we even kick it off.
If Frost and Nebraska can put aside off field distractions, the Cornhuskers could take that elusive step towards a .500 record and possible bowl invite.
Nebraska sees much of a defensive unit that has been improving each year return for 2021. It could very well be the strength of the team if the improving trend continues. The secondary does have some concerns though, but received a boost with the transfer of former 5-star defensive back Tyreke Johnson out of Ohio State.
Offensively the line may be the best one Scott Frost has had since taking over the head coach position. The unit has been slowly building toward the form Frost wishes to see it at, and already produced the second best rushing attack in the Big Ten last year.
That said, much of the rushing attack was thanks to quarterback Adrian Martinez. The dual threat QB was the leading rusher last year with 521 yards. While that is nice for Martinez, Nebraska coaches don’t want to see that again. USC transfer Markese Stepp could be the guy to take that pressure off Martinez to be the leading rushing threat.
The final piece to this offensive puzzle is to get the passing attack going. However Nebraska is once again having to try and identify players on the outside who can produce after seeing their top targets from last season leave in the portal.
Row The Boat Back To 2019 Form
Most people predicted Minnesota would go through a growth season after losing many key guys from the 2019 team. Sure enough, the 2020 Golden Gophers had their fair share of struggles. Mostly on the defensive side of the ball.
In 2019, Minnesota finished 54th in total defense and 59th in scoring defense. Last year, those numbers fell to 72nd and 70th respectively. Clearly those numbers need to improve, and Minnesota will have almost all their defensive players return in 2021. If you were a betting man, it would seem like a safe bet that those players would grow from a rough year.
Still, the defense will receive some help. Former Clemson defensive tackle Nyles Pinckney transferred into the program this off-season. His presence, along with edge rusher Boye Mafe, provide the Gophers with a stronger defensive front than they had last year.
Offensively Minnesota lost wideout Rashod Bateman to graduation, but reports are the staff likes the makeup of the current receiving core. It certainly helps that Minnesota will have senior QB Tanner Morgan behind center orchestrating the offense.
Offensively though this may be a run oriented team in 2021. The offensive line is thought to be good, and star running back Mohamed Ibrahim has returned for his senior season.
Year 1 At Illinois
New head coach Bret Bielema has returned to his home state to lead the Fighting Illini back to respectability. After the failed tenure of Lovie Smith, Bielema will be tasked with changing the culture of a program that hasn’t seen success since the mid 2000’s.
For those that remember Bielema’s days at Wisconsin, he inherited a program and offensive identity that pounded teams into submission with the ground game. That type of offense though is not being carried over to Illinois.
Offensive coordinator Tony Petersen will attempt to bring a more spread look to the offensive attack than the one seen during Bielema’s time in Madison. It’s staying current with the times and how the college game has evolved, showcasing talent on the outside that Illinois can potentially use to lure recruits to the program.
Defensively, the Fighting Illini will work to implement a 3-4 base defense and have spent the summer working on establishing new roles for some players to make the scheme work. Jake Hansen, Isaiah Gay, and Owen Carney Jr will be returning players at linebacker that could thrive in this new system.
Still, years of inept recruiting and development will most likely mean year one could be rough for Bielema and company. But that’s ok. It’s about building for the future and showcasing your vision to recruits as you build the program.
High Flying Purdue
Purdue is a team that’s got lots of offensive talent to make them competitive in the Big Ten. Problem is, their defense has been a major liability in keeping them in games.
The Boilermakers enter 2021 with a strong receiving core led by junior wideout David Bell. Even with the musical chairs that has plagued the quarterback position, Purdue managed to finish 16th in the country for passing offense. Most observers expect Purdue to keep up the excellent air attack.
The question that is still being sorted out though is who will throw the ball to these receivers? Jack Plummer, Aidan O’Connell, and Austin Burton are all vying for the starting job. You can be certain Brohm and his staff are looking for one of those three to seize the job. Ending camp being forced to pick an option doesn’t scream confidence.
Brad Lambert is taking over the defense after being hired away from Marshall. We covered his hire already, and it should be an upgrade for the Boilermakers. Lambert though will have to maximize all the talent he can as defensive depth is a question mark.
He will have edge rusher George Karlaftis to use as a weapon. Karlaftis, if healthy, is considered one of the top defensive players in the conference.
A Real Dream Season For Wisconsin?
The Badgers and the Big Ten Network worked together to put out a series called “Dream Season.” In it, 12 classic victories were played on the network simulating a dream 12-0 season for the Badgers. 2021 may be the season that turns dreams into reality.
The Badgers on paper seem to have everything they need to turn 2021 into a dominant year. They have their ideal guy at quarterback in sophomore Graham Mertz, a receiving core that is returning experienced and talented players at receiver and tight end, and this is Wisconsin so you know the offensive line is going to be good.
Really the only question is at running back, where last season that unit didn’t live up to expectations. However the Badgers did land in the transfer portal former Clemson running back Chez Mullusi. He may end up becoming the feature back this season.
Defensively Wsconsin won big in the off-season when Jim Leonard turned down the Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator job to remain with the Badgers. He is regarded as one of the best assistant coaches in the game, and should have the defense ready to go once more this season.
Wisconsin has a very difficult schedule on paper to begin the year. They open against Penn State at home, then host Eastern Michigan before playing Notre Dame on a neutral field. Finally, in week four they host Michigan.
It’s a schedule that is tough in any year, but playing Penn State first thing should benefit Wisconsin as Penn State is trying to implement a new offensive scheme. Michigan is a mystery right now under Harbaugh and his new staff, but at least the Badgers get to play them at home. The largest test will be the Notre Dame contest.
Should Wisconsin start off 4-0, that ‘Dream Season’ could be very much in play.
Record Predictions
#1 Wisconsin: 12 – 0
#2 Iowa: 7 – 5
#3 Minnesota: 7 – 5
#4 Nebraska: 7 – 5
#5 Northwestern: 4 – 8
#6 Purdue: 4 – 8
#7 Illinois: 2 – 10