Reviewing what developments have happened in the season so far that people didn’t see coming
The first quarter of the 2021 season has brought about some surprises. A few teams many people thought would be highly rated have struggled, while a few others have certainly impressed.
It’s time to look at some surprising developments for a few teams after the quarter mark of the year.
Michigan State And A Highly Efficient Offense
The Spartans hit the quarter mark of the season at 3-0, which may be a surprise to many. It’s only year two of a rebuild under Mel Tucker, but this team looks way ahead of schedule. The best part about this early success for Spartan fans is that it doesn’t feel like a fluke. In establishing the new culture at Michigan State, Tucker has combined the physicality of the Mark Dantonio era with daily competition that drives efficient execution. Right now this is most apparent on the offensive side of the ball.
The offensive success is coming from up front, where senior guard, Matt Carrick, is leading an MSU offensive line that is opening holes in the running game and providing time for the pass. Carrick in particular is having a strong start to the year, as he is currently the 15th best lineman in the country according to PFF.
The superb play up front has allowed running back Kenneth Walker III to explode onto the national scene. The junior transfer from Wake Forest has accumulated 493 yards on 57 carries, which is good for 8.6 yards a carry. He also has scored six times this year, five on the ground and one receiving, and this overall performance has led to some early season Heisman talk.
Sophomore quarterback Payton Thorne won the starting job in fall camp, and has been one of the top QBs in the conference. In three games Thorne has thrown for 726 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. His QBR is 84.8, which is seventh in the country.
Before the year began, no one would have thought one of the better offenses in the conference would be coming out of East Lansing. However, that’s exactly what we see three games in.
Michigan’s Sledgehammer Offense
From one surprising Michigan team to the other surprising Michigan team.
The Wolverines being 3-0 at this point in the year is not what is most surprising. It’s the fact that after all the talk about speed and experience at receiver, this offense has just bludgeoned the opposition with the run.
Most fans of the Wolverines I have spoken to anticipated the offense to be more spread out in 2021. Josh Gattis, who is entering year three as offensive coordinator, talked this off-season of finally having the speed and experience on the edge of this offense.
However, if you were expecting spread looks, what you’ve seen much more of is heavy personnel and multiple tight end looks. This is by no means a post complaining about how Michigan runs its offense. The results speak for themselves so far, as the offense is averaging 7.2 yards per carry.
Running backs, Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins, are leading the way for the Wolverines on the ground. Combined, the two players have 688 yards and 11 touchdowns. True freshman, Donovan Edwards, has added 117 yards on 15 carries and 2 touchdowns.
Though the offense may not have the spread look some thought was coming, Michigan is still finding ways to put their talented play makers in space to wreck havoc on defenses. We’re seeing more misdirection and jet sweeps with players who can outrun the opposition than we have in years past.
It will be fun to watch how this offense continues to evolve, as the rushing attack may provide ample time for the passing game to grow behind it each week.
Ohio State Can’t Stop The Run
If ever there was a season to struggle against the run, this wouldn’t be it.
Ohio State entered the season looking to correct a passing defense that finished 122nd last year. Most of the talk about the unit was around young players who may see time to help address the issue. While fans knew that the Buckeyes were losing linebackers Tuf Borland, Baron Browning, and Pete Werner, thoughts were the next men up would be able to hold down the position.
Well, three weeks in and it’s safe to say that was incorrect. Ohio State has deployed a heavy rotation of players at linebacker, which may be preventing any one guy from getting into a rhythm. That said, guys like Tommy Eichenberg and Teradja Mitchell have been caught out of position or taking bad angles on plays.
It’s not all problems with personnel though. After the loss to Oregon, it was apparent to many that Ohio State’s defensive scheme was far too basic and predictable. Kerry Coombs, who is in his second year as defensive coordinator, failed to deploy any type of substantial adjustment until late into the game.
The performance that Saturday was so bad, that head coach Ryan Day made the move before the Tulsa game to remove play calling duties away from Coombs. Instead, secondary coach Matt Barnes was tasked with the role. Barnes’ first game though saw an 0-2 Tulsa team put up 501 yards of offense. The silver lining being that only 73 of those yards were on the ground.
The majority pick to win the Big Ten this year, Ohio State looks confused and vulnerable on defense. Barnes has a lot to get figured out on the fly, and things won’t get any easier with a resurgent Michigan and MSU on the horizon.
Nebraska Figuring Out Passing
So far during Scott Frost’s time at Nebraska, the Cornhuskers have been an offense that could run the ball but not throw it well. Some people who cover the time have speculated that the constant turnover at the skill positions have hampered progress there, while others believe scheme and play design have been at fault.
Entering into the game against Oklahoma last week, Nebraska was 37th in the country throwing the ball with an average of 277.3 yards per game. Then, in a valiant effort on the road, quarterback Adrian Martinez threw for 289 yards and a score against an Oklahoma defense that is thought to be one of the better units under Lincoln Riley.
Martinez this season has completed 65.7% of his throws, while racking up 1,017 yards and 5 touchdowns. His average yards per completion sits currently at 10.3, which is 2.5 yards better than his career best.
One reason for Martinez’s success if wide receiver and FCS transfer, Samori Toure. In 2019, Toure was with the Montana Grizzlies. They did not play in 2020 due to Covid-19, but his last season with the team saw him finish with 87 receptions, for 1,495 yards, and 13 touchdowns. This year with Nebraska, Toure has become the leading receiver on the team with 16 receptions, for 333 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
Should this passing performance continue for Nebraska, and if they play with the same grit they showed against Oklahoma each week, the Cornhuskers may very well finish above .500 for the first time since 2016.
Indiana Forgetting How To Pass
Moving on from one team whose figured out passing, to another team whose passing game has gone into the toilet.
Indiana was supposed to have a potential Heisman candidate this season in quarterback Michael Penix Jr. That opinion now feels very distant after the first quarter of the season.
Penix has thrown six interceptions already this year. In each of his previous two years at IU, he finished those seasons throwing only four. At the moment, his completion percentage is also continuing its downward trend. In 2019, he had a completion percentage of 68.8. In 2020, it was at 56.4. Now, it’s at 48.3.
Indiana lost receiver Whop Philyor to graduation, but returned Ty Fryfogle who was recognized in 2020 as the Big Ten’s best receiver. IU also returned tight end Peyton Hendershot who chose to play his senior year instead of heading to the NFL.
Right now something is very wrong with the IU offense. This off-season they wanted to establish a balanced attack through an improved rushing game, but even that hasn’t panned out well yet.
The Hoosiers can turn things around as plenty of games remain. However, if the offense continues to sputter like this then IU won’t be bowling come season’s end.