A historic matchup between these two undefeated programs deserves its own preview
This Saturday, Michigan and Michigan state will face-off for the first time with 7-0 records. The last time these two teams met when they were both ranked in the top-10 was back in 1964.
It’s a rivalry that has largely been one-sided, as Michigan holds a 71-37-5 record against the Spartans. However, since 2008, Sparty has won 9 of the last 13 contests.
The game should be of national interest as it doesn’t just have Big Ten title implications, but CFP implications as well.
Game Details
Date & Time: Saturday, Oct 30th, 12:00 PM EDT.
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan.
TV: FOX
Weather: 54 degrees, cloudy with slight chance of rain.
Battle of the Running Game
Both the Spartans and the Wolverines have potent rushing attacks. MSU is led by their Heisman candidate, Kenneth Walker III, who has the second most rushing yards in the NCAA with 997. Michigan has a two-headed attack with Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins, where the pair have combined for 1,331 yards rushing.
Rivalry games tend to bring out the trash talk, and the fan bases for both have spent the better part of their time verbally tearing down the others running game. Arguments about who has the better running back room or player have been prevalent on message boards and twitter.
My opinion is that Michigan has the better running back core, while MSU has a guy in Walker that you could argue is playing better than else at that position. Michigan has shown their attack comes from at least two different players, while MSU has been fairly reliant on Walker for the bulk of their yards.
You cannot talk about the running game of either team without mentioning the offensive lines. The O-lines for both teams have performed well, in part to the depth both units possess. Michigan’s line has helped spear the NCAA’s fifth best rushing offense at an average of 253.3 yards per game (YPG). The Spartan’s unit has carried their run game to 32nd in the country at 200.4 YPG.
According to PFF.com, MSU is tied at 16th in the country in terms of run blocking, while Michigan is 59th in this category. An interesting stat, as the site has Michigan rated as their fourth best rushing team, and MSU 32nd.
Solid Defense For Both Teams
One reason Michigan finds themselves 7-0, is due to the play of their defense. After overhauling the majority of the defensive staff this off-season, the Wolverines have gotten great returns from their new scheme.
Michigan sits close to the top in many of the main defensive categories. They are second in scoring defense at 14.29 PPG, 24th in rushing defense at 116.6 YPG, and 20th in passing yards allowed with 182.4 YPG. It’s safe to say that firt year coordinator, Mike Macdonald has the unit operating at a very high level.
DE/OLB Aidan Hutchinson is main weapon on this team, and he has been used in various ways by Macdonald that allows Michigan to take advantage of certain matchups. You can be sure that the Michigan coaches will try to isolate Hutchinson on whoever they feel is the weakest lineman on MSU’s side.
Michigan State on the other hand, operates like a true “bend, but don’t break” unit. The Spartans have given up a fair amount of yardage via the air, as they have allowed 285.4 YPG and is 121st in the country. The unit is respectable against the rush, holding teams to 121 YPG which ranks 31st overall. All this leads us to scoring defense, where MSU sits tied at a solid 19th in the country, allowing just 18.71 PPG.
The stats show that MSU is able to be thrown on, however it isn’t as straight forward as it may look. The Spartans have recorded 26 sacks in seven games, an average of 3.71 sacks per game and tied for fifth in the country.
Explosive Plays
Where this game may ultimately come down to is which team can create more explosive plays than the other. These plays wont necessarily have to score points, but perhaps gain a chunk of yards or convert a crucial third and long.
MSU QB Payton Thorne has found two reliable receivers in Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor. Both of these players have at times ripped up opponents secondaries for huge yardage. For instance, Jalen Nailor torched Rutgers for three touchdowns, where all three of his scores came on receptions of 60+ yards.
Michigan anticipated having weapons like Reed and Nailor this year. They Were to have Ronnie Bell and Xavier Worthy who could take the top off defenses and truly take this offense to another level. However, Bell was injured early in the year and lost for the season. Worthy, well he never made it to Ann Arbor as he backed out of his commitment and signed with Texas. He has been nothing but sensational since.
Michigan State should hold the edge in terms of creating explosive plays, as they have the talent on the outside and have shown a consistent ability to do so. Michigan at the moment does not. They neither have the guys at receiver, nor do they have a quarterback in McNamara that pushes the ball down field on a regular basis. McNamara manages the game, attempting to limit mistakes. That may not be good enough Saturday.
Prediction
This game should be a close contest that will test each teams ground game. I believe MSU pulls it out, as their offense brings another dimension that Michigan does not. Explosive plays via the pass. A few of those plays could be enough to swing this contest in MSU’s favor.
MSU: 24 – 20.