The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a disappointing and short 2020 campaign that saw them go 2-4 on the year, bringing about many changes to the coaching staff. I have covered those changes already, and with Michigan wrapping up spring camp on April 10th I decided to do something a bit different on this entry in the Spring Series. I am going to pose the question, which of the three quarterbacks competing for the starting job would you like to see start for the maize and blue?
Down below I will present pros and cons of each player, but I want to hear your thoughts in the comments afterwards about who you think should start.
Starting off we will look at the player who was on the team last season, junior Cade McNamara.
McNamara saw most of his action late last season when he replaced Joe Milton during the Wolverine’s triple overtime win vs Rutgers. His performance against the Scarlet Knights earned him a start the next week against Penn State, in what ended up being the final game of the year for Michigan.
McNamara would end the 2020 season with a stat line that left some fans of the Wolverines feeling like he showed promise, and could be the guy to lead the team in 2021.
Admittedly this next part requires some assumptions because of the small sample size, but using PFF.com’s college stats to look deeper into the numbers and McNamara’s performance, we saw a quarterback that possessed an ability to make the quick read and deliver an accurate ball to the intended receiver.
To illustrate the points above we can look at two advanced statistics. When McNamara dropped back to throw he got the ball out of his hands quickly, with an average release time of 2.32 seconds. Milton, by comparison, averaged 2.81 seconds on his throws and it probably led to some of his issues in the passing game last year.
The other advanced stat of interest and one that perhaps highlights McNamara’s accuracy is adjusted completion percentage (ADJ%). Adjusted completion percentage takes into account balls that were thrown on target but were not caught. McNamara’s ADJ% last year was 73.1, meaning that many of his throws were on target to the intended receiver.
Offensive Coordinator Josh Gattis has talked about speed quite often since arriving in Ann Arbor, both from a positional standpoint and in execution. McNamara may be the quarterback to help bring that offensive vision to life.
Next up we have the transfer quarterback from Texas Tech, redshirt junior, Alan Bowman.
Bowman did not appear in spring camp for the Wolverines as his transfer to Michigan is pending, but all indications are showing he will be with the team come fall camp.
While Bowman will have plenty of work to do to get caught up on learning the offense, he does bring with him something the other quarterbacks at Michigan don’t have, experience.
As seen by the table above, Bowman is bringing to the Michigan quarterback room three years of collegiate experience. The next most experienced quarterback Michigan has is McNamara, who as we covered above has seen limited playing time to date.
Looking into the advanced stats, we can see Bowman has put up comparable numbers to McNamara but over a greater amount of time. For instance, Bowman has seen his average release time fall from 2.44 seconds in 2018 to 2.14 seconds in 2020, highlighting his ability to get the ball out quickly.
Bowman’s ADJ% last year ended up being 74.4, another comparable number to McNamara and possibly re-enforces the idea of the type of quarterback Michigan is looking for: highly accurate and able to make the quick decisions.
However even with those positive traits come some cautionary ones, specifically injuries.
In the three years Bowman has played at Texas Tech, he never was able to get through a full season healthy. In 2018 he suffered a partially collapsed lung after a hit, then in 2019 suffered a shoulder injury that saw him redshirt the remainder of that year. Lastly in 2020, Bowman suffered a leg injury that, while not serious, opened the door for his backup to eventually take the starting job away from him.
You cannot plan for injuries, but if Bowman wins the starting job Michigan has to make sure to protect him from unnecessary hits.
Really this next section could be classified as “the field” if we were taking bets. Outside of the two players above, it’s possible Michigan could go with another player if in fall camp someone rises above McNamara and Bowman.
Most likely that person would be J.J. McCarthy, the 5-star true freshman from the 2021 class that comes in with much hype and enrolled early into the university. According to coaches, McCarthy has already found himself as the backup to McNamara on the depth chart, at least at the end of spring camp.
It might be too much to think McCarthy can jump into the program and start from day one, but keep in mind that some prominent programs in recent history have gone with freshman quarterbacks if they prove they are ready for the task. We probably won’t know for sure if McCarthy can handle that until we get closer to the end of fall camp.
Lastly, sophomore quarterback Dan Villari has been noted by coaches as another option at the position, though it sounds like for specific packages on offense. Still, if he shows the coaches something between now and the opening of the 2021 that makes the staff at Michigan believe he is the guy, Villari would become the epitome of the dark horse candidate winning the job.
Again, let me know who you guys would like to see win the job in the comments below.