Conference and divisional races look to gain clarity this week with key match ups throughout the Big Ten
It is November in the Big Ten, and for many teams they may have to combat their opponent and the harsh elements on Saturday. Those that can overcome both may see themselves separate from the rest of the pack regarding divisional races.
#6 Michigan @ Penn State – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
This year, the Wolverines won’t have to contend with a White Out at night when they visit Happy Valley. That doesn’t mean it won’t be any less of an imposing environment though.
At this point, it wont be a surprise to point out Michigan will look to run the ball on Penn State. The Wolverines have tried to run it on everyone, except for MSU because their secondary isn’t good, and the ground game is Michigan’s bread and butter. This could provide the Wolverines with an edge this Saturday, as the forecast in Happy Valley is supposed to be windy, cold, and wet.
That forecast I just mentioned could cause plenty of issues for Penn State. All year long the Nittany Lions have struggled to run the ball, relying on quick throws to the outside to act as their extension of the rushing game. Teams cannot stack the line, because if they do Penn State has the receivers to stretch defenses vertically and make them pay. However, if the weather is as bad as predicted, connecting on those deep throws may be much harder to come by.
I may be putting too much of an emphasis on the weather in this game, but I do think it has an impact on PSU more so Michigan. The Wolverines win a low scoring affair.
Michigan 17 – 10
Northwestern @ #18 Wisconsin – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
The Badgers will look to continue their march to Indianapolis as they host Northwestern this weekend. Wisconsin is on a five game winning streak, and are seen as one of the more improved teams from the beginning of the year.
Starting running back, Chez Mellusi, will unfortunately miss the rest of the season with a leg injury. Mellusi helped Wisconsin produce an offense that is 13th in the nation in rushing yards per game. Now backup Braelon Allen will be the lead man, and has already shown some pop with the opportunities he has seen.
For the Wildcats, this may very well be a difficult afternoon. NU doesn’t defend the rush well, and with a passing game that hasn’t been very effective all year, NU may not score many points. I wrote earlier this week though how I believe Ryan Hilinski needs to start at QB, as Northwestern may need to have an eye on the future. Starting Hilinski in this game may be like throwing him to the wolves, but could pay dividends down the road when NU is looking to contend in the Big Ten once again.
Wisconsin: 42 – 3
Rutgers @ Indiana – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
As the season gets closer and closer to the end, Rutgers is in position to become bowl eligible if they can secure two more wins. This weekend will be of significant importance in keeping that opportunity alive.
Rutgers offensively is a balanced team, but doesn’t do either the pass or run well. Still, it can pose problems for defenses because they can keep you off balance with what to expect play to play. This could be especially important this week against Indiana, as the Hoosiers are decimated with injuries on all both sides of the ball. If Rutgers can get into a rhythm and use some misdirection effectively, The Scarlet Knights should have opportunities to score against IU’s inexperienced backups.
Indiana will have to find some way to generate offense, but again, the injuries to key players at all positions may make that very difficult. IU limps into this game looking for their first conference win of the year.
Rutgers: 21 – 10
#19 Purdue @ #4 Ohio State – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Does the giant killer make it three in a season, or does the largest giant in the conference prevail? #19 Purdue will take on #4 Ohio State and look to record their third win over a top five opponent this season.
The Boilermakers certainly have the offensive attack capable of pulling the upset. Purdue’s passing game has consistently been in the top ten of the nation all year. Led by receiver David Bell, who is 7th in the country for receiving yards with 1,003, Purdue can strike fast and efficiently through the air.
The Buckeyes though have a potent offense of their own, though it has been a bit down of late. Ohio State has the 6th best passing offense, and 44th ranked rushing offense. So the Buckeyes can put up points. However, the recent play of quarterback C.J. Stroud and the offensive line has led to production slipping the past two weeks.
I expect this game to be high scoring with the edge to Ohio State. Purdue will find success throwing on a secondary I still have reservations about, while OSU will be able to rely on RPO looks that have given Purdue issues this season. Eventually, the more talented side pulls it out.
Ohio State: 37 – 28
Minnesota @ #20 Iowa – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
A big match up in the West, as rivals Minnesota and Iowa square off for the Floyd of Rosedale. Both teams are playing to keep their hopes of winning the West alive, as a loss here for either team would make it extremely difficult to achieve that goal.
Minnesota is coming off a loss to Illinois that saw the Gophers look lost on offense once more. Minnesota has had a lot of issues with injuries at the running back position, but Illinois showed if you can clamp down on the run, Minnesota sputters. It’s a shame, considering that Minnesota has senior Tanner Morgan at QB and should be seen more as a benefit than a question mark.
Iowa has their own offensive issues as well, but was able to get some solid results from their ground game against Northwestern. Quarterback Alex Padilla will get his first start against Minnesota, after spelling Spencer Petras in last weeks game.
Iowa: 20 – 17
Maryland @ #7 Michigan State – Saturday, 4:00 PM ET
Michigan State will be squaring off against Maryland, and it wouldn’t surprise me if MSU finds the game plan on defense to look similar to last week’s contest against Purdue.
The Terrapins are not as efficient or prolific as Purdue in the passing game, but they still can hurt you with their attack. Like the Boilermakers though, Maryland struggles to run the ball. Also, after the injury to receiver Dontay Demus Jr., Maryland has been quite as dangerous on offense.
Still, Michigan State has been statistically one of the worst teams against the pass this year. If they can generate a pass rush, they may be able to prevent Maryland from marching up and down the field. That said, MSU’s defense may be looking for its offense to create some separation and score a few touchdowns early. If Sparty can jump out to an early lead, they can put the pressure on Maryland to take chances with riskier throws, and possibly record a few takeaways.
Michigan State: 34 – 21