Week 13, the final week of the season, is what college football is all about
Rivalry Week is here, and it signals the end of the season for many in college football. For some schools, bowl births, division titles, or a chance at the college football playoff is on the line. For those whose season hasn’t gone well, they have one more chance at redemption, with bragging rights between the two schools on the line.
The game that will garner the most attention is The Game, but this weekend will be a day to throw out records as rivalry games can go any direction. If you aren’t paying attention, you may be surprised to see a few upsets this week that can flip divisional races.
#16 Iowa @ Nebraska – Friday, 1:30 PM ET
The Heroes Game starts off rivalry weekend in the Big Ten, as Iowa looks to keep their West Division title hopes alive. A win and a Wisconsin loss to Minnesota is key for the Hawkeyes.
On Iowa’s end, they bring into Lincoln the number nine scoring defense, giving up an average of 16.91 PPG. While injuries have derailed some aspects of the defense during the middle of the season, the Hawkeyes have gotten a few bodies back and seem to have returned to the level of play we saw earlier in the year. Combine the defense with the improved play of the offense after QB Alex Padilla took over, and the Hawkeyes should feel confident heading into this game.
Nebraska however will be without starting QB Adrian Martinez. It appears that freshman Logan Smothers will start instead, and obviously that is not what you want to see as a Cornhusker fan entering this game. If Nebraska is to win, they’ll most likely have to rely on the Blackshirts to stifle Iowa’s offense, while finding some type of rhythm on offense through the running game.
Iowa: 27 – 10
#2 Ohio State @ #5 Michigan – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
The nation will be watching The Game, as it represents tow top five teams going at it. Big Ten Championship Game and CFP implications are on the line, and it’s reminiscent of when these two teams would play for the Big Ten title and Rose Bowl birth.
By now, I don’t need to educate you on Ohio State’s explosive passing game. You know they have it, every college football fan knows they have it, and certainly Michigan knows they have it. The Wolverines face the tall task of limiting the Buckeye attack, because if they cannot, this game can snowball quickly like we saw last week when MSU faced the Buckeyes. I expect OSU to come out and throw some haymakers early, run up tempo and try to create confusion, while putting the Wolverines in a hole on the scoreboard.
If Michigan can survive the initial onslaught, the Wolverines can use their balance of run and pass to attack a OSU defense that I believe still has question marks about how much they have improved. While Michigan is a run first team, Cade McNamara has performed very well the past few weeks as the Wolverines have begun to see their passing attack click. Assuming the defense does their job in limiting OSU, Michigan’s offense should move the ball on the Buckeyes and score points.
Even if Michigan plays a solid game on defense, the Buckeyes will get their yards and points. Question is, can Michigan limit them enough to allow their offense to keep pace, or will the Silver Bullets show they are up to the challenge in slowing down a solid offense as well?
Ohio State: 42 – 30
Maryland @ Rutgers – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
I talked a couple weeks ago about how this game could end up pitting two teams battling for bowl eligibility. After both Rutgers and Maryland lost last week, that’s exactly what we have. 5-6 Maryland playing 5-6 Rutgers, winner advances to post-season play.
This game is an interesting match up when looking at the strengths and weaknesses of both schools. Maryland attempts to attack opponents through the air, and while injuries have hindered them at times, they are still capable of putting up yards and points against bad secondaries. Rutgers has been unfairly labeled as the worst secondary in the Big Ten in my opinion, however they haven’t done well when facing solid passing attacks all year.
On the other end, Rutgers brings a balanced offense that can cause problems on the edge with some of their more agile players. Thing is, they haven’t been elite or consistent enough in their attack, which is why they are 113th in scoring offense with 20.9 PPG. Maryland though has had a difficult time stopping opponents from scoring, and is also 113th in the nation, but in scoring defense where they allow 33.91 PPG.
Perhaps this game can become the ember that helps the flame of a rivalry grow between these two schools. With a winner securing a .500 finish, the other will have to sit through another off-season with a losing record, and no bowl bid.
Rutgers: 30 – 27
Penn State @ #12 Michigan State – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
It’s the battle for the Land Grant Trophy, and the $17 million men. Both James Franklin and Mel Tucker agreed to 10 year contract extensions this week, with the one receiving $7.5 million per year and the later receiving $9.5 million per year. Michigan State is looking to secure a NY6 bowl game and a ten win season, while Penn State is attempting to finish the season off on a strong note after a up and down campaign.
This could be a match up that favors the underdog in PSU, as while the Nittany Lions have been unable to run the ball all year, their passing game has been a strength. Penn State averages 270.9 YPG through the air, while Michigan State is dead last in the FBS in passing yards allowed, giving up 339.9 YPG. It will be hard to see the Spartans correcting their issues for the final game of the year, which could lead to many points for the Nittany Lions.
MSU certainly will look to redeem themselves on offense after last week’s performance in Columbus. Sparty possesses one of the more balanced attacks in the conference, but may have to ask QB Payton Thorne to win this game as PSU is strong against the run. Thorne and the receiving core for the Spartans will have to force the Nittany Lions to respect the pass, and perhaps open up holes in the running game later in the contest. If they can’t, PSU could very well walk away with the upset.
Penn State: 35 – 24
Northwestern @ Illinois – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
The Land of Lincoln Trophy is on the line as in-state rivals Northwestern and Illinois renew acquaintances. Both have already been eliminated from post-season play, so this will be the last chance to build momentum heading into the off-season.
The Fighting Illini have done a solid job improving their defense over the course of the year. At times they have had problems stopping either the run or the pass, but that could have been in part to a new scheme and players playing new positions. Entering into this contest, Illinois’ defense has turned into a solid unit whose averages sit in the middle of the country. Their 41st ranked scoring average at 22.64 PPG is the key stat though in reflecting their improved play.
Northwestern has been searching for an offensive rhythm all year, as evidenced by the rotation of quarterbacks the Wildcats have gone through. NU’s key to a victory lay with seeing improved play from an offense that has the 80th ranked rushing attack, and 110th ranked passing game. Again, like most teams, expecting to see an improvement for the last game of the year may be too much to ask.
Illinois: 23 – 14
Indiana @ Purdue – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
In-state rivals Purdue and Indiana will play for the Old Oaken Bucket and bragging rights. These two teams missed out on playing each other last year due to covid-19, and both should be eager to reunite their hatred on the field.
Purdue is second in the Big Ten and seventh in the nation for passing yards per game, averaging 345.9 YPG. QB Aidan O’Connell has been outstanding in the last four games, throwing for 1,582 yards, 12 touchdowns, and no interceptions. His completion percentage on the year sits at 72.7%, which has been key in allowing Purdue to move the ball though their rushing attack has struggled.
Indiana has a decent pass defense, ranking 69th in the country allowing 231.6 YPG. The Hoosiers may be able to slow Purdue in the pass, but shouldn’t be expected to significantly hinder what the Boilermaker’s want to do offensively. IU just doesn’t have the pieces right now to match Purdue’s receiving core. On top of that, Indiana is dealing with injuries at key areas on offense, and asking this patchwork unit to match the Boilermakers point for point is a very big ask.
Purdue: 35 – 7
#14 Wisconsin @ Minnesota – Saturday, 4:00 PM ET
The West Division is Wisconsin’s with a win, but Minnesota hopes to spoil their chances and leave with Paul Bunyan’s Axe and their own shot at the division if Iowa falters on Friday.
The Badgers have reeled off seven consecutive wins behind their defense and improved offensive play. The rushing game has been key to Wisconsin’s turnaround, and we may be seeing the next star running back in the making with freshman Braelon Allen leading the ground attack. QB Graham Mertz has turned his season around as well, and is taking better care of the ball while managing the offense. Just like in prior weeks, Wisconsin will try to establish the run and use play action to move the ball, though Minnesota boasts the 12th best rush defense in the country.
The Badgers however one up the Gophers on defense, or more like eleven up, as Wisconsin is the top rush defense in the nation, allowing just 64.3 YPG. When Minnesota has been effective on offense, it has been due to successfully rushing the ball. However, they have to get production from the pass, and need QB Tanner Morgan to play his best game of the year. If Minnesota cannot hit on a few throws to keep Wisconsin honest, this may snowball into Wisconsin’s favor.
Wisconsin: 28 – 14