Week nine sees some of the best matchups this year concerning Big Ten play
We have a loaded week nine slate, with divisional matchups that will help sort out the crowded field in both divisional races. We have Michigan at Michigan St., PSU vs OSU, and Iowa @ Wisconsin. These three games alone should go a long way in separating the true conference title contenders from the pretenders.
A bit of housekeeping first. As you may see, this prediction post has a new title. As some have mentioned, my previews/predictions are fairly light as I do not have the time to dive in depth into each matchup. My intent though is to provide some insight that could be key to the game, or at least provide a clue as to why my prediction falls the way it did.
So similar to a successful two-minute drill, it’s quick and efficient. Hence the name moving forwards, Two-Minute Drill Predictions.
Now, for the picks.
#6 Michigan @ #8 Michigan State – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
Because of the historic nature of this game, decided to provide a little more of a preview than normal. You can find that preview here.
Rutgers @ Illinois – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
Coming off their stunning upset of Penn State, Illinois is set to host Rutgers and attempt to build off the momentum of their big win. The Scarlet Knights though may present some significant challenges to this Illini team.
Illinois and RB Chase Brown destroyed Penn State’s defense with a ground attack that has become a major weapon. This dedication to the ground game is partly out of necessity, as Illinois has struggled to throw no matter who their QB is. This may be a problem this week, as the Rutgers defense may dare Illinois to throw by loading the box.
Oddly enough, Rutgers will present Illinois with a more balanced attack than what they saw from Penn State. The Scarlet Knights don’t have a good offense by any stretch, but they do stay away from becoming one dimensional. If Rutgers can limit the success of the Illinois ground game, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see RU come into Champaign and leave with a victory.
Rutgers: 23 – 17
Indiana @ Maryland – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
The Terrapins are trying to get healthy in the secondary. The Hoosiers are trying to get healthy at the quarterback position. Advantage Maryland?
Even before the the injuries to Indiana’s quarterbacks, the Hoosiers were struggling on offense. The passing game has regressed and their running game is still in the bottom half of the country. Even the defense has been subpar from last year.
Maryland has it’s own injury issues to fight through, as well as subpar play. Outside of the decimated secondary, QB Taulia Tagovailoa needs to improve his game to salvage at least something from this season. The loss of receiver Dontay Demus Jr. certainly has hurt Maryland, but that loss cannot explain all the problems we now see.
I’ll take Maryland to win, mainly because I have no clue how IU will look offensively with the injured quarterbacks.
Maryland: 27 – 7
#9 Iowa @ Wisconsin – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
The battle for the Heartland Trophy returns this weekend with Iowa traveling to Wisconsin. A Wisconsin win means they are still in control of their destiny to win the West. Should Iowa win, they could be facing the lone obstacle of Minnesota in their quest for a West title.
Wisconsin has turned to the run game in its three game win streak. Running backs Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen have led the way, as the Badgers have averaged 293 yards rushing during the streak. That kind of production most likely will end against a very good Iowa defense.
This game comes down to two teams with good defenses, and offenses that are asked to play smart and not turn the ball over. For the Hawkeyes, that’s just par for the course most years under Ferentz. Wisconsin though, they are playing very run heavy because they cannot trust QB Graham Mertz to not turn the ball over when asked to throw even 20 times a game.
Wisconsin needs to throw to win, but it’s highly doubtful they can. Iowa can throw, it’s just not always pretty. I’ll take Iowa.
Iowa: 21 – 10
Minnesota @ Northwestern – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Here is an interesting factoid. Minnesota has the nation’s fifth best rushing defense. A year ago, Covid-19 decimated the roster and fans saw opposing teams literally run all over the Gophers. Now, they allow just 85.7 yards per game on the ground.
I bring all this up because the ground game is Northwestern’s best weapon on offense. Ryan Hilinski has done a good job for the Wildcats since taking over the quarterback job, but NU doesn’t have the guys to attack Minnesota consistently and effectively through the air.
Minnesota uses it’s defense and improving offense to overcome Northwestern on the road.
Minnesota: 34 – 10
Purdue @ Nebraska – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
This feels like a coin flip game.
The Cornhuskers have played a number of ranked teams tough this year, losing by close margins in all those games. Then they play Minnesota, and lose what felt like a winnable game if they continued to play and execute at the level we saw during those losses. Surely they would have to be rewarded at some point right?
Nope.
Then we have Purdue. A team that cannot build on conference wins. Find a way to beat Illinois, then next weekend find a way to lose to Minnesota. Come out and have an impressive outing against Iowa, then no show against Wisconsin.
I guess i’ll take Purdue. It fits the pattern of them winning after a loss, and the pattern of Nebraska dropping another game they should win.
Purdue: 28 – 21
#20 Penn State @ #5 Ohio State – Saturday, 7:30 PM ET
Get ready to see a lot of red Saturday night.
OSU is looking to ‘Scarlet Out The Shoe’ and will be wearing all scarlet uniforms when they host Penn State. No word yet if PSU coach James Franklin will show up as he may be coaching against Illinois again, but in Michigan this time.
All jokes aside, these two programs appear to be moving in opposite directions. After starting the year strong at 5-0, PSU has lost consecutive games to Iowa and Illinois. The loss to Illinois was a stunning event, and set off alarm bells something may not be right in Happy Valley.
Ohio State dropped an early contest to Oregon, and plenty of questions were raised about the defensive performance of this team. Since that loss, Ohio State has seemingly righted the ship. Their past four games have seen the offense score over 50 points in each contest, and the defense is playing more fundamentally sound than at the beginning of the year.
OSU is an elite offense, and Penn State should not expect to completely shut down the Buckeyes. They will have to try and slow the OSU offense as much as possible, while keeping pace score wise with their own. Matching points with OSU may be the only way PSU wins this game, and I just don’t see that happening. Even if QB Sean Clifford was healthy.
Ohio State: 42 – 17