Week ten action sees many of the Big Ten’s ranked teams playing unranked schools with possible upset alerts
#5 Ohio State @ Nebraska – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
The Buckeyes travel to Lincoln, NE to face a Cornhusker team that plays up and down to their competition, but never well enough to win.
On Saturday, we wont know what Nebraska we will see. It could be the team with Adrian Martinez at QB making good throws and supporting the run, while the defense plays with excellent effort and is mostly sound in their assignments. Or it could be the team that had the bottom fall out last week against Purdue, where Martinez threw four interceptions and the defense couldn’t keep Purdue from 100 yards rushing when they were averaging less than 2.5 YPC a game.
Now Nebraska has to face an Ohio State offense that is as explosive as any in the country. Even if Nebraska plays a solid game on defense, OSU should still get their points requiring the Cornhuskers to match them point for point. It’s hard to see that happening, as it becomes more likely the Scott Frost era wraps up after this season.
Ohio State: 42 – 20
Illinois @ #20 Minnesota – Saturday, 12:00 PM ET
Minnesota is looking to continue their undefeated run in divisional play when they host Illinois on Saturday.
For the Gophers, their pursuit to a potential West Division title is all about the run game, both on offense and defense. After losing running backs Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts for the season, Minnesota has been able to still find success with their third, fourth, and fifth options. On the defensive side, a revamped defense from last year is now holding teams to 92.9 YPG, which is eighth in the nation.
The above points to why this will be a very difficult game for Illinois, beyond just looking at records. The Fighting Illini have only found sustained success on the ground this season, but that will be hard to come by this week. It’s possible the defense for Illinois can limit the Minnesota ground game, but like last week against Rutgers, even allowing 20 points could be too much to overcome.
Minnesota: 24 – 13
#3 Michigan State @ Purdue – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Coming off a big win over Michigan, could the Spartans find themselves on upset alert this weekend?
Going past the obvious that anything is possible, Purdue can present some challenges to Michigan State this weekend. First, Purdue’s offense is heavily oriented towards the passing game. As we saw last weekend against Michigan, MSU had trouble defending the Wolverine air attack, and really defending the pass has been an issue for the Spartans all year.
Secondly, Purdue has a sneaky good defense that doesn’t get the publicity that it should. The Boilermakers are 17th in the nation at total defense, and tied at 10th in scoring defense with 17.12 PPG. Michigan State will certainly be able to move the ball on the Boilermakers, but Purdue may be able to limit some of that explosiveness that Sparty has used to overcome some opponents in earlier games.
That said, still like MSU here, but it’s closer than most people think.
Michigan State: 28 – 24
#21 Wisconsin @ Rutgers – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Similar to last week, Rutgers faces a team that hasn’t thrown the ball well all year, but has had success running the football. Unlike Illinois however, Wisconsin has the talent upfront to push the Scarlet Knight defense back.
Since Wisconsin has turned to a heavy run based attack, the Badgers have turned their season around. After starting 1-3, Wisconsin now sits at 5-3 while remaining undefeated in the West. Running backs Chez Mellusi and Braelon Allen have shoulder the load of lifting this Wisconsin offense to 20th in the nation.Rutgers will have to try to slow down Wisconsin’s rushing attack and force QB Graham Mertz to throw.
I don’t expect Rutgers to score many points in this game, as their offense is below average and Wisconsin boasts one of the better defenses in the country. Wisconsin keeps their momentum rolling with a win in New Jersey.
Wisconsin 23 – 3
Penn State @ Maryland – Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
Penn State looks to end their three game losing streak, while Maryland looks to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2016.
Some see this game as an upset alert for Penn State. While that is certainly possible, two things stand out to me about why PSU should handle Maryland with relative ease. To start, Maryland’s offense since the injury to receiver Dontay Demus Jr. hasn’t been what it was at the start of the year. The Terrapins were never going to be a strong running team, but with the injury to Demus Jr., QB Taulia Tagovailoa has seen his numbers fall drastically in the passing game. Now, they have to face one of the better defenses in the Big Ten in Penn State.
The other part is Maryland’s secondary is beat up. Injuries have decimated the unit and the Terps are putting out in the secondary a patchwork group each weekend. Well, the one way Penn State can move the ball is through the air. If Sean Clifford is healthy at quarterback, Penn State could put up some big yardage on their way to a win.
Penn State: 30 – 17
#22 Iowa @ Northwestern – Saturday, 7:00 PM ET
Iowa needs to right the ship on their season in order to prevent this year from feeling like a total loss. After a promising start where the Hawkeyes were 6-0, they have fallen hard back to earth dropping their last two games.
In those losses, Iowa’s offense has become a completely inept unit. The rushing attack, which was supposed to be the strength of the unit, has gained just 100 yards in those two games. Going back to the spring previews, I long felt Iowa would have issues throwing the ball this season, and so far they have proved me right.
The good news for Iowa is if they needed an opponent to possibly help them get back on track, Northwestern would be the most likely candidate. NU is 126th against the run, allowing 229.5 YPG. Iowa should be able to move the ball on the ground, and allow their defense to suffocate a NU offense that lacks weapons on the roster.
Iowa: 20 – 6
Indiana @ #7 Michigan – Saturday, 7:30 PM ET
Michigan has come under fire all week after losing to MSU. If ever a team needed a bounce back game, Michigan would be it.
The Wolverine defense faltered last week when MSU broke out a no huddle attack that Michigan failed to adapt to. Indiana may try to exploit the Wolverines using the same tactic, but I fully expect Michigan to have spent the week working on addressing that very concern.
Michigan should be heavily favored here, as Indiana has had issues moving the ball all year long. Even when they had healthy QBs, Indiana hasn’t looked anything like the team from a year ago when they almost won the East. On the other side, watch to see if Michigan expands upon their passing game. One area lightly touched on about Michigan after their loss to MSU was QB Cade McNamara played his best game against the Spartans. That, and receiver Andrel Anthony could be a new weapon this Michigan offense could unleash upon the rest of their Big Ten opponents.
Michigan: 31 – 13