In conference match ups litter week five as Big Ten football resumes
We have already seen some conference games this season, but we see the conference schedule kick it into gear with just two non-conference games. Week five sees a pair of undefeated teams play under the lights, and Penn State looks to avenge it’s 2020 loss to IU.
Let me know your thoughts below if you agree or disagree with the picks.
#5 Iowa @ Maryland – Friday, 8:00 PM EST
The Friday night game in the Big Ten may be the game of the week in my eyes. The #5 Hawkeyes go on the road to face the undefeated Maryland Terrapins.
Iowa will be relying on their 13th ranked defense to slow down the Maryland passing attack that comes in 8th in the country, and first in the Big Ten. Maryland Quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, has done a good job protecting the ball as he has just one interception on the year. He will be facing an Iowa defense though that has recorded six interceptions in four games, and boasts one of the more experienced secondaries in the conference.
If Iowa can control the game on offense with their ground game, the Hawkeyes should be able to leave Capital One Field with a win. Look for Maryland to try and take that ground game away early and force Iowa to throw, as their passing attack comes in 113th in the country.
Iowa: 27 – 24
#14 Michigan @ Wisconsin – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST
A game that pits two programs that seemingly are heading in two different directions. The undefeated Wolverines head to Madison to play Wisconsin.
The Badgers are coming off a disastrous week four, where their offensive woes came to a head in the fourth quarter against Notre Dame. Quarterback Graham Mertz continued his track record of poor play against ranked teams, and sees another ranked opponent this week.
Michigan on the other hand enters a perfect 4-0, but the Wolverine faithful aren’t completely sold on this team yet after a close call against Rutgers. The Rutgers defense shut down the Michigan rushing attack after the first quarter, and Michigan showed a lack of consistency trying to throw to move the ball the rest of the way.
If Michigan can win against an elite defensive team like Wisconsin (2nd ranked defense in the country), perhaps some of the concern about the Wolverine offense will be eased by the fan base.
Michigan: 13 – 10
Charlotte @ Illinois – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST
The Fighting Illini wrap up non-conference play this week as the host the Charlotte 49ers. Brett Bielema’s team has been playing inspired football the past two weeks, but has fallen just shy of pulling out wins against Maryland and Purdue.
Unlike the teams mentioned above, Charlotte brings a more balanced offensive attack that will test the 111th ranked Illini defense. That said, the 49ers defense is not much better as they are ranked 105th in the nation. In my opinion, The Illini have faced far better competition than the 49ers have so far this year. This is a game where you don’t look at the records because it’s a misrepresentation of where these teams are at.
Illinois: 30 – 20
Minnesota @ Purdue – Saturday, 12:00 PM EST
It’s a West Division match up, as Purdue hosts Minnesota. The Boilermakers are coming off a win against rivals Illinois, where Minnesota is coming off a shocking loss to Bowling Green.
We know Purdue will attack defenses through the air, and though Minnesota enters 44th against the pass, Purdue can have success attacking the Gopher secondary. Minnesota has played two opponents in Colorado and Bowling Green that have struggled to throw, which may have inflated that pass defense ranking.
For Minnesota to pull off the win, they need to have a far better game plan on offense than what they showed last weekend. That said, any improved game plan they draw up is going to receive a solid test from a Purdue defense that looks far better than its 2020 counter part.
Purdue: 31 – 17
#11 Ohio State @ Rutgers – Saturday, 3:30 PM EST
How does this Ohio State defense perform against Rutgers? Things Ohio State fans didn’t expect to hear before the season.
I think it’s been pretty well covered by now that Ohio State has had some glaring defensive issues to start the year. Secondary coach Matt Barnes is now calling the defensive plays, and this will be the first true test the Silver Bullets will face.
Rutgers won’t want this game to turn into a shootout, and will ask their 11th overall defense to limit OSU’s explosive offense. If the D can keep the game close, Rutgers can try to test Ohio State by attacking the edge with jet sweeps and screens to the outside. Force Ohio State to show you they can defend the perimeter.
Ohio State: 35 – 28
Indiana @ #4 Penn State – Saturday, 7:30 PM EST
Penn State looks to continue their solid start to the year and get a little payback this week. IU comes to Happy Valley looking to shock the Nittany Lions a second time in as many seasons.
When the year started, I thought the offense for PSU would take some time to get rolling. Well, the passing game has certainly taken off as it ranks 18th in the country, averaging 307.8 yards per game. Quarterback Sean Clifford and receiver Jahan Dotson could have a big day against an IU defense that has been average at best against the pass.
IU’s chances for pulling off the upset will come down to quarterback Michael Penix Jr creating plays from and outside the pocket. However, Penix has already thrown six interceptions this year, the most he has thrown in any season. Penn State will certainly try to pressure Penix, and see if they cannot add to his turnover total.
Penn State: 38 – 14
Western Kentucky @ #17 Michigan State – Saturday, 7:30 PM EST
The Spartans also wrap up non-conference play this weekend as they host WKU. MSU is coming off an overtime win at home over Nebraska, while Western Kentucky is coming off a close loss to IU.
Just like last weekend when we previewed IU vs WKU, the Spartans are going to face a potent passing attack from the Hilltoppers. This can be a problematic opponent for MSU as they are 106th against the pass.
This will sound quite basic, but to avoid the upset MSU needs to win at the line of scrimmage. They have the pieces on offense to move WKU off the ball and create running room for Kenneth Walker III to roll, but also has better talent up front on defense than what IU possesses. If they can generate pressure, perhaps they can limit some of the success WKU wants to have through the air.
Michigan State: 40 – 20
Northwestern @ Nebraska – Saturday, 7:30 PM EST
The Cornhuskers welcome in Northwestern in the Big Ten’s battle for the N.
Ok, that isn’t actually a thing, but it should be.
Nebraska is on a two game losing streak, but has played both Oklahoma and Michigan State close. Even in the losses, it feels like if the Cornhuskers play with the same level of effort the wins will come.
Northwestern unfortunately appears to be in one of their traditional rebuilding years. Their two wins have come against Indiana State and Ohio, two programs that wont scare anybody.
Nebraska can hurt you both passing and throwing, which is the first time we could say that in years. I expect the Cornhuskers to end their losing streak on Saturday and overwhelm this young NU defense on their way back to .500.
Nebraska: 35 – 10