Week three is almost here and Happy Valley is ready to welcome Auburn to the White Out
This week, a few teams are playing good non-conference competition. Most know about Auburn at Penn State, but we also have Michigan State at Miami, Nebraska at Oklahoma, and Cincinnati at Indiana. Week three predictions down below, starting with the “Friday Night Under The Lights” match up.
Maryland @ Illinois – Friday, 9:00 PM EST
After their opening win over Nebraska, the Fighting Illini have dropped two straight games. In their losses to UTSA and Virginia, Illinois has given up 703 yards through the air. The average QBR for opposing quarterbacks is 79.4%. It’s looking like this could be an early indicator that Illinois has some significant issues in the secondary this season.
Things wont get any easier this week with Maryland coming to town. Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has thrown for 606 yards, 6 touchdowns, and no interceptions so far. His top two receivers in Dontay Demus Jr. and Rakim Jarrett have combined for 450 yards and four scores this year. Expect Maryland to attack Illinois early and often through the air on their way to a win.
Maryland: 49 – 17
Nebraska @ #3 Oklahoma – 12:00 PM EST
Historical rivals renew acquaintances as Nebraska faces off against #3 Oklahoma. These teams last met in 2010, and this meeting will mark the 87th game between these programs.
Nebraska enters as the heavy underdog in this one. After I thought the defense may be the strength of this team, the unit hasn’t been as efficient as expected. Three games in they are 77th in rushing defense and 48th in passing yards allowed. It’ll be safe to say though that Nebraska hasn’t faced an offense quite like Oklahoma’s yet this season. If they pull the upset, QB Adrian Martinez is going to have to make plays through the air. However, that song has been sung so many times before, with little results.
Oklahoma: 52 – 21
#8 Cincinnati @ Indiana – 12:00 PM EST
Before the season, this was looking like a potential top 15 match up. Indiana’s poor showing in week one altered that vision, but now can use this game as way to regain national attention with a win.
The Hoosiers spent time in the off-season discussing how they wanted to match a strong rushing attack with their excellent passing game. Well, Indiana has improved the rushing attack from 114th to 95th. It’s too bad it seems that improvement has been at the detriment of the passing game, which has fallen to 110th. Needless to say, for the Hoosiers to win Saturday they will need to find a way to move the ball against a Cincinnati defense that is 18th overall in the country.
Cincinnati: 31 – 10
Michigan State @ #24 Miami – 12:00 PM EST
The Spartans travel to Miami in what should be a great measuring stick for MSU. Mel Tucker’s team has looked physical and efficient in many phases of the game, and can put their growth in year two to the test against a quality Miami team.
Miami’s passing defense is 111th, but playing Alabama as one of your two games will impact that ranking quite a bit. I believe that while MSU may still have success throwing, it’ll be the ground game where Sparty can swing the game in their favor. The MSU offensive line has done a great job this year opening holes for the running backs. That is evident by the 7.97 yards per carry MSU is averaging. Miami’s defensive front has not looked strong against the run, and the trench battle may be where MSU is able to pull the upset.
Michigan State: 28 – 24
Northern Illinois @ #25 Michigan – 12:00 PM EST
Last week, Michigan threw for only 44 yards against Washington. Expect that to change a bit against Northern Illinois.
The Huskies have the 46th best passing defense, but give up an average of 12.48 yards per completion. No team they have faced has really challenged them through the air because of the Huskies inability to stop the run. Michigan will still pound the rock against NIU, but expect offensive coordinator Josh Gattis to work on building up the passing game as they try to replace the loss of WR Ronnie Bell.
Michigan: 45 – 10.
Minnesota @ Colorado – 1:00 PM EST
Colorado almost upset #5 Texas A&M last weekend, and that is helping the perception they should beat Minnesota. However, this game feels like a real coin flip. It’s hard to look at these two squads and feel confident that you know what either team is at this point.
Minnesota still has issues defensively that have carried over from last season, but they are going up against a Colorado offense that hasn’t looked impressive so far. On the other hand, Minnesota can try and ride a victory behind their offensive line and QB Tanner Morgan, though Colorado’s defense has been sound so far and will make them work for every yard. Who wins the game may come down to who wins between Minnesota’s 47th ranked rushing offense and Colorado’s 13th ranked rush defense.
Minnesota: 19 – 13
Purdue @ # 12 Notre Dame – 2:30 PM EST
Many casual fans may look at this match up and think Notre Dame should roll. That may very well happen. However, if you check your phone late Saturday afternoon and see this game within one score, just say this name: David Bell.
Last week against UConn, the junior receiver had 6 receptions for 121 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’ll lead the 11th best passing attack into South Bend in a bid to upset the Irish at home. Notre Dame gives up just shy of 200 yards a game through the air, but allows approximately 12.9 yards per completion. Expect Purdue to try and rack up the yards after catch in this contest.
Notre Dame: 31 – 28
Kent State @ #5 Iowa – 3:30 PM EST
Pop quiz! Do you know who has the number one rushing offense in college football this season? Ok, computers down. It’s Kent State! I wanted to share that fact before it possibly changes this week.
The Hawkeyes face their first non-ranked team of the season when they host Kent this Saturday. As mentioned above, Kent State has the number one rushing attack in the country. They average 6.73 yards a rush, and 360 yards a game. Iowa’s defense though should be able to limit its effectiveness, as they are holding teams to just 82 yards per game.
Iowa: 30 – 10
Tulsa @ #9 Ohio State – 3:30 PM EST
The Kerry Coombs watch is in full effect in Columbus, OH. However, as of Wednesday night he is still the DC for the Buckeyes. Cue the gnashing of teeth from the fan base.
Head Coach Ryan Day said this week that a number of changes would be coming to the defense. What those changes will be is anyone’s guess. Outside of personnel, we may see some new wrinkles on how this team approaches defending the edge in the run game. Tulsa averages five yards per carry on offense, and may look to pull a page out of Oregon’s playbook and run to the outside. Again. And again. And again…
Ohio State: 56 – 14
Delaware @ Rutgers – 3:30 PM EST
Rutgers is trying for their first 3-0 start to the season since 2012. That was the first year after current head coach, Greg Schiano, left the program. Luckily for Rutgers, their opponent this week is the Fightin’ Blue Hens of Delaware.
Now don’t let the word fightin’ fool you, this won’t be much of a battle. Similar to the Temple game in week one, Rutgers should have plenty of talent at the skill positions to dominate this week. It’s possible QB Noah Verdal will attack Delaware through the air early, while building on his timing with his receivers. Come the second half though, expect the Scarlet Knights to go vanilla on offense and get young guys playing time.
Rutgers: 63 – 6
Northwestern @ Duke – 4:00 PM EST
It’s the battle of the books as academic powerhouses Northwestern and Duke square off this week. Both teams are coming off wins over FCS programs last week. NU beat Indiana State, and Duke beat North Carolina A&T.
Last week the Wildcats relied heavily on their running game to move the ball and score, accumulating 209 yards on the ground. This week they will need help from their air attack as Duke can put up points quickly with their pistol offense. NU will need its defense to figure out a way to slow down Duke’s running game, which comes in to the contest 17th in the nation. That could be a tall task for a unit that has had issues defending the run going back to last year.
Duke: 38 – 20
#22 Auburn @ #10 Penn State – 7:30 PM EST
It’s the marqee match up in the Big Ten, and we’ll have a white out to go along with it. Penn State hosts Auburn in a Big Ten/SEC showdown.
Both teams enter 2-0 and ranked in the Top-25. First year coach, Brian Harsin has the Tigers clicking on both offense and defense early this season. The Auburn Tigers have a rushing attack that is third in the country for total yards with 680 and first in yards per carry at 9.58. Those numbers are impressive, but when you see that Auburn has only played Akron and FCS Alabama State, those numbers become a bit more understandable.
Penn State on the other hand has been battle tested already, especially in week one, and has a defense that will be a few tiers better than what Auburn has seen so far. If the Nittany Lions defense, which allows close to three yards per carry, can force Bo Nix and Auburn to throw it Saturday, it should be advantage Penn State.
Penn State: 27 – 17