Going back to 2000, the Buckeyes have either won or split the conference title 11 out of the 20 years, and really since 2005 have won or split the conference title 10 out of the past 15.
It’s an impressive display of excellence over a significant stretch of time, and as Ohio State gears up for the 2021 season the goal remains high: find a way to be one of the four teams in the CFP. Such a campaign would no doubt come with the expectation of yet another Big Ten championship, unless the Buckeyes want to try and repeat the 2016 season when they lost to Penn State but still made the playoff.
As frustrating as it may be to some, Ohio State will most likely remain the favorite to win the Big Ten this year and for years to come, at least until they either taper off or some other program steps up to their level.
The first scenario about gradually declining can surely happen, but discussing that is not nearly as much fun as entertaining the option of who may be able to raise their programs to a level that can compete with OSU.
1: Penn State
The 2020 season for Penn State was anything but good. The pandemic saw Penn State hit with multiple opt outs, most notably top defensive player Micah Parsons, and injuries early in the year combined with a new offensive system that didn’t have a true off-season to be installed resulted in a 4-5 record.
While the 2020 campaign didn’t achieve many of the goals the Nittany Lions may have set out to accomplish, I feel it was an outlier of a year for Penn State. With James Franklin at the helm, the Nittany Lions had never finished worse than 7-6 before 2020, and I am of the opinion we will see the program return to the 2016 – 2019 versions of itself in 2021.Those versions of Penn State were teams that consistently pushed Ohio State on the field, resulting in some of the more exciting games in recent years.
Ranking Penn State as the top contender to overtake the Big Ten crown though isn’t just due to on field results, but results and progress seen off the field as well.
Since 2014 when Franklin took over the program, Penn State has finished inside the top 25 nationally for recruiting according to the 247Sports Composite Rankings, with the highest ranking class coming in 2018 when they ranked sixth. Penn State has long been a power on the recruiting trail and any program that wants to remain competitive on that front needs to continue to re-invest in the program.
Penn State is doing exactly that with the renovation and expansion of the Lasch Football Building. The $48.3 million project was approved back in February of this year and Penn State is working on raising the funds for the construction plans. The facility is expected to see increased capacity for strength and treatment programs, while also expanding on programs that support the student athletes who are navigating college life.
Lastly, Penn State isn’t looking at the 2020 season as an outlier. James Franklin clearly felt that where his program was and may be headed schematically, at least on the offensive side of the ball, needed to be addressed to better compete in today’s football landscape.
Enter new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich who was brought in to change the offense into a much more explosive unit than years past. Today’s game has seen offenses across the country produce at levels we have not seen at any other time prior in the sport, and Penn State knows it needs to adapt with the times. Bringing in someone who is very well regarded in the sport, and helped establish the offensive identity Ohio State runs as well, is a smart move when trying to knock off the king from on top of the mountain.
2: Wisconsin
My uncle, who is a Michigan fan, loves to remind me every time we see Wisconsin on TV that he remembers the days when the W on the sides of the helmet meant a win for the opposing team. Barry Alvarez, the legendary coach and current AD at Wisconsin changed all that.
Now the program is in the hands of Paul Chryst, who played quarterback under Alvarez, and has built off the success of his predecessors. Wisconsin is turning into the premier program in the Big Ten West, as since the geographical realignment in 2014, the program has won the West division four out of the past six years. Though the Badgers have made it to the Big Ten Championship game, Ohio State has won each of those contests except for 2016 when they lost to Penn State.
For fans of the Badgers, it’s been a somewhat frustrating six years when you see your team come so close to winning the conference title, only to lose that last pivotal game. Paul Chryst and his staff though are doing some really great things off the field to make those Ls we see in the game recap lead to a W, like the one seen on the side of the Badger helmets.
To compete with the best, you need to recruit with the best. During the Chryst era at Wisconsin, the first few recruiting classes from 2015 – 2018 finished anywhere from the mid 30’s to mid 40’s nationally according to the 247 Sports Composite.
Things changed though in 2019 when that class finished 29th, then in 2020 finished 26th, and lastly the recent class of 2021 is listed as 15th nationally. Technically the 2021 recruiting cycle is still open, but when it closes most people do not expect their rank to alter dramatically.
The work the Wisconsin staff is doing should be recognized more in my opinion, but those championship losses have perhaps caused people outside the program to overlook the Badgers in the years to come as a true sustainable threat to the Big Ten crown.
If the recruiting results continue the way they have been trending the past few years, and combining that with the development Wisconsin is well respected for, do not be surprised if the Badgers start winning a few of those championship contests.
3: Michigan
I figure there may be some debate on this selection as Michigan has not grown to the levels people were expecting when Jim Harbaugh took over the program in 2015. While Harbaugh has brought Michigan back to a certain level of respectability on and off the field, the program is still seen as inferior to elite programs like Clemson, Alabama, and rival Ohio State.
Like Penn State, 2020 was a year that didn’t meet any of the expectations the program had set for itself. Finishing 2-4, the question on if Harbaugh would return to lead the Wolverines in 2021 and beyond dominated the news wire, but in January of this year that question was answered with a four year extension through 2025.
The extension also brought about sweeping changes to the coaching staff as more than half of the staff from 2020 has been replaced. Those moves have brought a level of optimism that perhaps new ideas and energy can get Michigan to the level the fan base wants it to be. So far, the off field results have shown a promising start.
Part of Harbaugh being able to bring Michigan back to a point of respectability started with focusing on the bloodline of any program, recruiting. Since taking over the program in 2015, Michigan has finished in the top 10 nationally four times according to the 247 Sports Composite.
Restoring the Michigan brand on the recruiting trail after the Brady Hoke years was something of a no brainier for Harbaugh, but taking it to another level on a consistent basis is what he was really after.
I would argue that while Michigan has missed on some big name targets over the last few years, overall the classes at the time were beyond respectable. The issue that seems to have plagued the team is either how they have utilized that talent, or the lack of development seen from the players they brought in. This is where the new staff assembled this off-season comes into play.
Michigan finally getting over the OSU hump will be due to continuing the recruiting standard or improving upon it, which they are, developing that talent, and utilizing it correctly on the field.
The last two of those things we won’t know until play begins, but if the new staff can achieve those three items above and combined with the infrastructure and resources behind the program, Michigan will be right back in the race for the top.
The Two Dark Horses
I won’t spend as much time on these two teams, but mainly want to throw out a couple reasons why they could overtake OSU, but also significant hurdles that could block them.
First would be the Northwestern Wildcats. With Pat Fitzgerald at the helm, the Wildcats have established a resilient culture that has allowed them to compete with the more prestigious programs. It is a culture that works well for a program that at times is hindered by academic standards for recruits.
While those standards won’t go away, I do wonder if their location in Chicago combined with name, image, and likeness rules entering the NCAA will expand their recruiting scope to include more sought-after recruits nationally. The power to market from a hub like Chicago is greater than most schools in the conference.
The second program would be the Indiana Hoosiers. Tom Allen has built a program that one could argue has developed its talent as good as any in the country. It may have gone unnoticed this year by many, because IU isn’t a big name program nor are they recruiting a bunch of 4-star or 5-star guys.
Allen’s program has been built largely on the ability to establish recruiting pipelines into the southern states, develop the 3-star or 2-star guys they do receive commits from, and sprinkle in timely transfers who fit well into the program. Even in the pandemic-shortened year of 2020, IU’s success stunned many who paid little attention to the Hoosiers.
The question moving forward for Allen and the Hoosiers will be this though, was 2020 the emergence of IU entering the race for the Big Ten East in future seasons, or was it a blip during a strange year where once things return to normal, IU returns to respectable but not championship level play?